Six weighted factors, itemized
Algorithm class, harvest lifetime, compliance clock, migration lead time, data classification and exposure surface. Each factor carries the sentence that produced it and the lever that moves it — no black-box score.
harvest-now-decrypt-later survey instrument
Your cryptography has arupture date.Find it before someone else does.
RSA and elliptic-curve keys are not "going to break someday" — an adversary can harvest the traffic now and read it once a cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists. What breaks first is not the newest key; it is the data with the longest confidentiality lifetime. Cryptotremor surveys your manifest against real Shor and Grover resource estimates, sequences the migration, and hands your partners a report they can verify.
- Engine
- SHA-384 sealed
- Attack model
- Shor + Grover
- Deadline clock
- 2030 / 2035
- Agent tools
- 10 MCP tools
Reference estate · computed from the bundled manifest
6 primitives scored by the same engine the API runs. By 2045 the modelled break exposes 83.3% of the estate, and the earliest rupture is 2029. Nothing here is stored — load it to make it yours.
Step 1 — establish an estate
Load a cryptographic manifest
Every row is written to the production database and sealed into an audit chain. Start with the bundled reference estate, or paste a CSV/JSON manifest of your own.
The cost ledger is real arithmetic
Shor's algorithm needs a working register proportional to the modulus and a Toffoli count superlinear in it; Grover only halves symmetric security. Cryptotremor converts those into a physical-qubit figure at a distance-15 surface code, then reports the year a break would cost less than a day under three attacker scenarios. Coefficients are calibrated against published factoring estimates and documented in the engine.
RSA-2048
RSA 2048-bit
- Attack
- shor
- Logical qubits
- 2,868
- Physical (d=15)
- 1,290,600
- Non-Clifford ops
- 1.68e+8
- Break < 1 day
- 2038
→ ML-KEM-768 (FIPS 203)
ECDSA-P256
ECDSA NIST P-256
- Attack
- shor
- Logical qubits
- 359
- Physical (d=15)
- 161,550
- Non-Clifford ops
- 2.62e+6
- Break < 1 day
- 2029
→ ML-DSA-65 (FIPS 204)
AES-256-GCM
AES-256-GCM
- Attack
- grover
- Logical qubits
- 34
- Physical (d=15)
- 15,300
- Non-Clifford ops
- 2.67e+41
- Break < 1 day
- > 2045
→ AES-256-GCM (retain)
ML-KEM-768
ML-KEM-768
- Attack
- none
- Logical qubits
- 0
- Physical (d=15)
- —
- Non-Clifford ops
- —
- Break < 1 day
- > 2045
→ Deployed
Grover-sequenced waves
One migration retires a whole system, so the planner searches over systems with Grover amplitude amplification and reports the measured amplification factor for each pick.
Sealed, replayable history
Every create, update, decision and delete appends a SHA-384 hash-chained event over canonical JSON. Deletions leave tombstones, so the chain still replays.
What a visitor can actually do
- 01
Import
Load a CSV or JSON manifest, or the bundled reference estate. Rows are validated individually so one typo never blocks the batch.
- 02
Inspect
Open any primitive for its quantum cost ledger, factor evidence, binding constraint and full audit trail.
- 03
Decide and scrub
Record a migration decision, then drag the rupture rail to any year and watch the queue re-sequence against real measurements.
- 04
Export and share
Download JSON, Markdown or CSV, or freeze a snapshot partners can read without an account — with the chain head attached.
Live signals behind the survey
kev: live · arxiv: liveLive preprint feed, newest first. Retrieved 12 entries.
CISA · known exploited vulnerabilities
CVE-2023-27997
Fortinet · FortiOS and FortiProxy SSL-VPN — Fortinet FortiOS and FortiProxy SSL-VPN Heap-Based Buffer Overflow Vulnerability
Named crypto/TLS/authentication surface with 100% relevance to a cryptographic inventory.
CVE-2020-12812
Fortinet · FortiOS — Fortinet FortiOS SSL VPN Improper Authentication Vulnerability
Named crypto/TLS/authentication surface with 100% relevance to a cryptographic inventory.
CVE-2018-13379
Fortinet · FortiOS — Fortinet FortiOS SSL VPN Path Traversal Vulnerability
Named crypto/TLS/authentication surface with 100% relevance to a cryptographic inventory.
CVE-2025-34026
Versa · Concerto — Versa Concerto Improper Authentication Vulnerability
Named crypto/TLS/authentication surface with 75% relevance to a cryptographic inventory.
CVE-2025-24472
Fortinet · FortiOS and FortiProxy — Fortinet FortiOS and FortiProxy Authentication Bypass Vulnerability
Named crypto/TLS/authentication surface with 75% relevance to a cryptographic inventory.
CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog · fetched 2026-10-03T10:02:32.731Z
arXiv · quant-ph preprints
- Time-space lower bounds for breaking quantum cryptography
2026-10-01 · Fangqi Dong, Alex Lombardi
- Robust and leakage-resilient device-independent oblivious transfer in MiniQCryp
2026-10-01 · Zhili Chen, Rahul Jain
- Function-like pseudorandom unitaries generate pseudorandom quantum processes
2026-10-01 · Zitai Xu, Rahul Arvind
- Quantum key distribution using generalized contextuality against post-quantum eavesdroppers
2026-09-30 · Daniel Centeno, Roberto D. Baldijão
- Verifiable Quantum Advantage and Computation via Quantum Circuit Obfuscation
2026-09-30 · Alexandru Gheorghiu, Aparna Gupte
arXiv quant-ph · fetched 2026-10-03T10:02:32.795Z
Read the numbers before the deadline
Cryptotremor produces planning estimates, not a security audit, a compliance determination or a cryptographic review. Rupture years are scenarios derived from published resource estimates and an assumed attacker roadmap, not predictions. Have a qualified cryptographer review any migration decision before acting on it.